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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out VfL Bochum 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat VfL Bochum 2-1 at Veltins Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 2.23 xG and VfL Bochum 1.10 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against VfL Bochum attack 0.84 / defence 1.37, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 63% | Draw 19% | VfL Bochum 18%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 64%, VfL Bochum 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Schalke 04 arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights