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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Schalke 04 defy the odds to beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 at Veltins Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.17 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.22 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.86 / defence 0.85 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 35% | Draw 28% | SV Darmstadt 98 37%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Schalke 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 60%, SV Darmstadt 98 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.37 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights