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Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out SSV Ulm 1846 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat SSV Ulm 1846 2-1 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.57 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.16 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.06 / defence 1.29 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 46% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 27%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 67%, SSV Ulm 1846 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Schalke 04 arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights