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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Schalke 04 defy the odds to beat Karlsruher SC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat Karlsruher SC 2-1 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.83 xG and Karlsruher SC 2.10 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Karlsruher SC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.13 / defence 1.31 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.07 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 21% | Karlsruher SC 45%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual FC Schalke 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 62%, Karlsruher SC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.22 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights