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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 at Veltins Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.52 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 0.85 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.98 / defence 0.70 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 53% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Nürnberg 21%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 57%, 1. FC Nürnberg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.47 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights