🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC Schalke 04 cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over 1. FC Magdeburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 5-3 at Veltins Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.56 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.63 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.31 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 35% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 38%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC Schalke 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 57%, 1. FC Magdeburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.45 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights