🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 2-5 hammering of FC Schalke 04.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg beat FC Schalke 04 2-5 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.61 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.63 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 2.63 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.09 / defence 1.17 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.50 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 22% | Draw 19% | 1. FC Magdeburg 59%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.26 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights