FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Schalke 04's attack at 1.17x the league average against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
37%
2.69
26%
3.92
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.28
1.64
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
7%
13.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.64 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.