1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host VfL Wolfsburg at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. VfL Wolfsburg's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of 1. FC Heidenheim's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Heidenheim register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
VfL Wolfsburg have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against 1. FC Heidenheim's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 1–3 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VfL Wolfsburg have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 64% and VfL Wolfsburg 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 67% | VfL Wolfsburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.94 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.020 / defence 1.251 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.213 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.161. VfL Wolfsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 1. FC Heidenheim games / 11 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 42% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 35%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfL Wolfsburg (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 42% | Draw 23% | VfL Wolfsburg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.94 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.020 / def 1.251 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.213 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.76
VfL Wolfsburg xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Voith-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 42% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (7 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 1W | Draws 2 | VfL Wolfsburg 4W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 1.02x the league average against VfL Wolfsburg's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
42%
2.37
23%
4.43
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.70
1.76
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.50
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
5%
19.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.76 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 10W 12D 23L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 11W 12D 22L from 45 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 0.93 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (7W 8D 8L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 6D 11L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.51 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 69%.
Last 45 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 12D 23L in their last 45 games (0.93 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.26 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 7 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Heidenheim at 61%, VfL Wolfsburg at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 61% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 74% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 61% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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