1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim welcome Karlsruher SC to Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Heidenheim at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Karlsruher SC have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Karlsruher SC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 2 for Karlsruher SC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 1–2 Karlsruher SC — a Karlsruher SC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Karlsruher SC in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 64% and Karlsruher SC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Heidenheim 67% | Karlsruher SC 76%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Heidenheim surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Karlsruher SC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.40 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.018 / defence 1.249 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.960 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.161. Karlsruher SC's defence rating of 1.435 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output up. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Karlsruher SC's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 11 games and Karlsruher SC's last 45.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 59% | Draw 20% | Karlsruher SC 21%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.69 | Draw 5.03 | Karlsruher SC 4.81. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.40 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Karlsruher SC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 home games) | Karlsruher SC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 59% | Draw 20% | Karlsruher SC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.40 / Karlsruher SC 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.018 / def 1.249 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.960 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Karlsruher SC xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Voith-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 59% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Karlsruher SC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (1.02) and Karlsruher SC's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Karlsruher SC's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 11 games and Karlsruher SC's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
59%
1.69
20%
5.03
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.79
1.39
Karlsruher SC xG
1.69
59%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
9%
11.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
2%
53.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.39 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 10W 12D 23L from 45 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Karlsruher SC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 20L across 45 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 0.93 PPG, Karlsruher SC on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 7W 8D 7L from their last 22 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karlsruher SC's away record stands at 3W 7D 12L across their last 22 away games, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karlsruher SC's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.51 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Karlsruher SC in 60%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Karlsruher SC
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs Karlsruher SC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Karlsruher SC
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 12D 23L in their last 45 games (0.93 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 15W 10D 20L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Karlsruher SC away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.32 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 1. FC Heidenheim 5-2 Karlsruher SC.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Karlsruher SC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
2
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Karlsruher SC?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, Karlsruher SC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Karlsruher SC 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 59%, Karlsruher SC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 68% for Karlsruher SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 32% of games; Karlsruher SC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Karlsruher SC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and Karlsruher SC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 46% of Karlsruher SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and Karlsruher SC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 68% of Karlsruher SC's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Karlsruher SC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 73% of Karlsruher SC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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