Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Energie Cottbus welcome Karlsruher SC to LEAG Energie Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Energie Cottbus stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Energie Cottbus have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Energie Cottbus's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at LEAG Energie Stadion this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karlsruher SC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Karlsruher SC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Karlsruher SC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Energie Cottbus 1.33 PPG, Karlsruher SC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Energie Cottbus, 0 for Karlsruher SC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 3–0 with Energie Cottbus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Energie Cottbus in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Karlsruher SC in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Energie Cottbus 67% versus Karlsruher SC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Energie Cottbus 83% | Karlsruher SC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Energie Cottbus 1.69 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Energie Cottbus attack 1.062 / defence 1.249 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.947 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.446. Data: 6 Energie Cottbus games / 40 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Energie Cottbus 38% | Draw 23% | Karlsruher SC 39%. Fair-value odds: Energie Cottbus 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Karlsruher SC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karlsruher SC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Energie Cottbus 100% | Karlsruher SC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: LEAG Energie Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Energie Cottbus 38% | Draw 23% | Karlsruher SC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Energie Cottbus 1.69 / Karlsruher SC 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Energie Cottbus attack 1.062 / def 1.249 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.947 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Energie Cottbus xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Karlsruher SC xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at LEAG Energie Stadion.
Where is Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at LEAG Energie Stadion.
What competition is Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC part of?
Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives Energie Cottbus a 38% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Energie Cottbus and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Energie Cottbus and Karlsruher SC?
Record (1 meetings): Energie Cottbus 1W | Draws 0 | Karlsruher SC 0W.
What form are Energie Cottbus and Karlsruher SC in?
Energie Cottbus (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Energie Cottbus's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Karlsruher SC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Karlsruher SC's attack versus Energie Cottbus's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
38%
2.62
23%
4.42
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Energie Cottbus xG
Total xG
3.40
1.71
Karlsruher SC xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.49
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Energie Cottbus and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Energie Cottbus and 1.71 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Energie Cottbus come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Karlsruher SC sit at 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Energie Cottbus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Karlsruher SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Energie Cottbus are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Energie Cottbus have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Energie Cottbus
Early Season
Karlsruher SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Energie Cottbus and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
Energie Cottbus have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Energie Cottbus and Karlsruher SC runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Energie Cottbus
0
Draws
0
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Energie Cottbus and Karlsruher SC?
From 1 meetings on record, Energie Cottbus have won 1, Karlsruher SC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Energie Cottbus and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Karlsruher SC 0-3 Energie Cottbus.
Who has won more matches between Energie Cottbus and Karlsruher SC?
Energie Cottbus have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Energie Cottbus 67%, Karlsruher SC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Energie Cottbus and 67% for Karlsruher SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Karlsruher SC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Energie Cottbus home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Energie Cottbus play Karlsruher SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Energie Cottbus's games and 50% of Karlsruher SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Energie Cottbus vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Energie Cottbus's matches and 67% of Karlsruher SC's.
Do Energie Cottbus and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
Energie Cottbus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.