Eintracht Braunschweig 0-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.

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Match Analysis

Eintracht Braunschweig host SSV Jahn Regensburg at Eintracht-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Eintracht-Stadion, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eintracht-Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record: 1W 0D 6L from 7 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 3.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Eintracht Braunschweig carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 1–2 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 60% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 60% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 2.83 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.054 / defence 0.818 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.618 / defence 1.772. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.517. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.772 — this is suppressing Eintracht Braunschweig's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 13 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 79% | Draw 14% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 7%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Braunschweig (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Braunschweig at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Eintracht Braunschweig 40% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 29% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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