🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Braunschweig edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Braunschweig beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.54 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 44% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 31%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 49%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.20 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Braunschweig win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights