🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.62 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.04 / defence 1.30 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.95 / defence 0.79, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 26% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 49%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 51%, SC Paderborn 07 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights