Eintracht Braunschweig 3-5 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hertha BSC to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 August 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Braunschweig at Eintracht-Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Hertha BSC's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Eintracht Braunschweig's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Braunschweig register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hertha BSC have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hertha BSC have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 58% versus Hertha BSC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 50% | Hertha BSC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.18 xG and Hertha BSC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.813 / defence 0.960 | Hertha BSC attack 1.021 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.337. Data: 36 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 36 Hertha BSC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 40%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Hertha BSC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 60% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.18 / Hertha BSC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.813 / def 0.960 | Hertha BSC attack 1.021 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Hertha BSC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Eintracht Braunschweig 3 - 5 Hertha BSC.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 33% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
Record (6 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 2 | Hertha BSC 4W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.81) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.71
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.49
1.31
Hertha BSC xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.31 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 7D 18L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.58 PPG from 36 outings (16W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 6W 5D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 1.72 points per game from 18 outings (9W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.44 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Hertha BSC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
Hertha BSC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 7D 18L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.28 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Eintracht Braunschweig or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Braunschweig have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Hertha BSC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
5
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
From 7 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, Hertha BSC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 3-5 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 61%, Hertha BSC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 61% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 50% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 61% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hertha BSC cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-5 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.18 xG and Hertha BSC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.31 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Hertha BSC attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 40%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 50%, Hertha BSC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.