Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
1. FC Nürnberg travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Eintracht Braunschweig) versus 1.40 (1. FC Nürnberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
1. FC Nürnberg have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Eintracht Braunschweig 1–2 1. FC Nürnberg — a 1. FC Nürnberg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 57% and 1. FC Nürnberg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 52% | 1. FC Nürnberg 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Eintracht Braunschweig surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while 1. FC Nürnberg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.776 / defence 1.080 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.938 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.326. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Data: built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 61 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 61.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.82 | Draw 3.59 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (1. FC Nürnberg 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Braunschweig 40% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 28 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.776 / def 1.080 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.938 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.34
1. FC Nürnberg xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg FAQs
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 28) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 35% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.78) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 61 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.59
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.66
1.34
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.34 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 17W 17D 27L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 25L across 61 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.11 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 11W 9D 10L from their last 30 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 9W 6D 15L across their last 30 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.59 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg in 64%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig (Home) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg Form FAQs
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 17W 17D 27L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 24W 12D 25L in their last 61 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.40 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 May 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg won Eintracht Braunschweig 1-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
5
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Braunschweig at 57%, 1. FC Nürnberg at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Eintracht Braunschweig and 67% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 73% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 73% of 1. FC Nürnberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg finished level at 1-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 52%, 1. FC Nürnberg 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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