Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees 1. FC Nürnberg travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig at Eintracht-Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Eintracht Braunschweig) versus 1.40 (1. FC Nürnberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour 1. FC Nürnberg, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 57% and 1. FC Nürnberg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 52% | 1. FC Nürnberg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.776 / defence 1.080 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.938 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.326. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 61 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 40% | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.776 / def 1.080 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.938 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.34
1. FC Nürnberg xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 35% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (7 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 5W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.78) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.59
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.66
1.34
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.34 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 17W 17D 27L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 25L across 61 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.11 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 11W 9D 10L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 9W 6D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.59 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg in 64%.
Last 61 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 17W 17D 27L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 24W 12D 25L in their last 61 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.40 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
5
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Eintracht Braunschweig at 57%, 1. FC Nürnberg at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Eintracht Braunschweig and 67% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 73% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Nürnberg finished level at 1-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 52%, 1. FC Nürnberg 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.