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Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 0.94 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.92 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.74 / defence 0.82 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.75 / defence 0.84, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Köln 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 53%, 1. FC Köln 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.00 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights