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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dynamo Dresden cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo Dresden beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 2.07 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.98 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 0.99 / defence 1.36 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.10 / defence 1.48, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 41% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%, with Dynamo Dresden to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 82% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 82%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dynamo Dresden 0.76 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo Dresden win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights