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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Dynamo Dresden 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Dynamo Dresden 1-2 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 1.15 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.82 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 1.01 / defence 1.29 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.96 / defence 0.78, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 24% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 53%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 78%, SC Paderborn 07 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights