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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dynamo Dresden and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo Dresden and Hannover 96 finished level at 2-2 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 0.86 xG and Hannover 96 1.70 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo Dresden beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Hannover 96 attack 1.07 / defence 0.89, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 19% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 57%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 80%, Hannover 96 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Hannover 96's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hannover 96 shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights