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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out Dynamo Dresden 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat Dynamo Dresden 0-1 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 1.15 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.25 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo Dresden fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 32% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 37%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 100%, FC Schalke 04 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Schalke 04 arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo Dresden managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights