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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dynamo Dresden and Arminia Bielefeld share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as Dynamo Dresden and Arminia Bielefeld drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 1.63 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.20 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 0.99 / defence 1.23 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 47% | Draw 25% | Arminia Bielefeld 28%, with Dynamo Dresden to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 79%, Arminia Bielefeld 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dynamo Dresden 1.00 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights