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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Bochum finished level at 1-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.73 xG and VfL Bochum 1.03 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against VfL Bochum attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 52% | Draw 26% | VfL Bochum 21%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 55%, VfL Bochum 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 1.13 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights