🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Arminia Bielefeld cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SV Elversberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arminia Bielefeld beat SV Elversberg 2-0 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 xG and SV Elversberg 2.22 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Elversberg landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.01 / defence 1.18 against SV Elversberg attack 1.28 / defence 0.76, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 18% | Draw 20% | SV Elversberg 62%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Arminia Bielefeld win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 67%, SV Elversberg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights