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Prediction vindicated as Arminia Bielefeld edge out SV Darmstadt 98 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arminia Bielefeld beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.66 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.59 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 39% | Draw 26% | SV Darmstadt 98 36%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 52%, SV Darmstadt 98 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights