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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arminia Bielefeld and Holstein Kiel finished level at 2-2 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.67 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.17 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Holstein Kiel outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 49% | Draw 24% | Holstein Kiel 27%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 50%, Holstein Kiel 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 1.06 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights