Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Arminia Bielefeld host Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hertha BSC have recorded 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hertha BSC are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, Hertha BSC 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2026, ended Arminia Bielefeld 0–1 Hertha BSC — a Hertha BSC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hertha BSC trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 67% versus Hertha BSC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 60% | Hertha BSC 53%). Note also that Hertha BSC surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Arminia Bielefeld recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.52 xG and Hertha BSC 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.204 / defence 1.060 | Hertha BSC attack 1.475 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.161. Hertha BSC bring a tight defence (rating 0.770, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Arminia Bielefeld's projected output down. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack rating of 1.475, which lifts their away xG to 1.81. Data: built from Arminia Bielefeld's last 45 games and Hertha BSC's last 45.
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 32% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 44%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.12 | Draw 4.20 | Hertha BSC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Arminia Bielefeld's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arminia Bielefeld 90% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 26 • Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 32% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.52 / Hertha BSC 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.204 / def 1.060 | Hertha BSC attack 1.475 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Hertha BSC xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC FAQs
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 14 March 2027.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 32% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Arminia Bielefeld's last 45 games and Hertha BSC's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
32%
3.12
24%
4.20
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.34
1.81
Hertha BSC xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
16%
6.13
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
5%
19.14
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.81 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 11D 19L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.82 PPG from 45 outings (24W 10D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 10W 7D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 1.68 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Arminia Bielefeld are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 22 away games (13W 5D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.60 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hertha BSC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld (Home) vs Hertha BSC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC Form FAQs
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 24W 10D 11L in their last 45 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.68 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from January 2021. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld won Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Hertha BSC 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 73%, Hertha BSC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Arminia Bielefeld and 64% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 50% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 64% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 68% of Hertha BSC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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