Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Hertha BSC travel to to take on Arminia Bielefeld. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Arminia Bielefeld are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hertha BSC are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, Hertha BSC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 6–1 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hertha BSC trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arminia Bielefeld 68% and Hertha BSC 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 60% | Hertha BSC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.89 xG and Hertha BSC 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.153 / defence 0.988 | Hertha BSC attack 1.364 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.446. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Arminia Bielefeld games / 40 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 41%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.63 | Draw 4.76 | Hertha BSC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 80% | Hertha BSC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 38% | Draw 21% | Hertha BSC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.89 / Hertha BSC 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.153 / def 0.988 | Hertha BSC attack 1.364 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Hertha BSC xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 March 2027.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 38% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 41% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
Record (6 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 2W | Draws 3 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Hertha BSC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
38%
2.61
21%
4.73
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.84
1.95
Hertha BSC xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
14%
7.01
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
5%
18.31
6%
16.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.95 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 11D 18L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.72 PPG from 40 outings (20W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 8W 7D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Arminia Bielefeld are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 2.00 points per game from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.60 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
Hertha BSC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 20W 9D 11L in their last 40 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.55 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 70%, Hertha BSC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Arminia Bielefeld and 65% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 55% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 65% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.