🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out Arminia Bielefeld 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.65 xG and Hannover 96 1.84 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hannover 96 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Hannover 96 attack 1.22 / defence 1.03, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 33% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 41%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 52%, Hannover 96 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Hannover 96's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights