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Dominant Arminia Bielefeld run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arminia Bielefeld beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 5-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.53 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.58 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 37% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 39%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Arminia Bielefeld win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights