Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Arminia Bielefeld at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Schüco-Arena plays host to Arminia Bielefeld versus Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 30 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arminia Bielefeld have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 4W 5D 1L at Schüco-Arena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Braunschweig (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.00 for Eintracht Braunschweig. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 2W, Eintracht Braunschweig 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Eintracht Braunschweig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arminia Bielefeld 65% and Eintracht Braunschweig 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 58% | Eintracht Braunschweig 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.94 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.129 / defence 1.064 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.019 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.157. Data: 43 Arminia Bielefeld games / 43 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 53% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 24%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.17. Arminia Bielefeld hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arminia Bielefeld at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 80% | Eintracht Braunschweig 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Schüco-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 53% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.94 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.129 / def 1.064 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.019 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Schüco-Arena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Arminia Bielefeld 3 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Schüco-Arena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 53% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (4 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 2W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (1.13) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (1.02x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.41
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.19
1.25
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
14%
6.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
3%
28.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.25 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Arminia Bielefeld have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 11D 19L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form line: 13W 8D 22L from 43 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.09 for Eintracht Braunschweig. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Arminia Bielefeld are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 5W 2D 14L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arminia Bielefeld come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.19 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 13W 8D 22L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.62 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Arminia Bielefeld go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arminia Bielefeld won 4-1 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Arminia Bielefeld
2
Draws
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 5 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 3, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Arminia Bielefeld have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 71%, Eintracht Braunschweig 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 48% (Eintracht Braunschweig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 52% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 48% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arminia Bielefeld cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-1 at Schüco-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.94 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.25 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 53% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Braunschweig 24%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 58%, Eintracht Braunschweig 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 1.16 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arminia Bielefeld win broke the near-deadlock. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.