🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Arminia Bielefeld host 1. FC Nürnberg at in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Arminia Bielefeld — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Arminia Bielefeld haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 3W 5D 2L at — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. 1. FC Nürnberg haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Arminia Bielefeld) versus 1.60 (1. FC Nürnberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Arminia Bielefeld, 2 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arminia Bielefeld 65% and 1. FC Nürnberg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 53% | 1. FC Nürnberg 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.92 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.114 / defence 0.979 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.036 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.746 / away 1.253. Data: 34 Arminia Bielefeld games / 34 1. FC Nürnberg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 52% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Nürnberg 25%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | 1. FC Nürnberg 4.00. Arminia Bielefeld hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Arminia Bielefeld are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 80% | 1. FC Nürnberg 80% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights