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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 30, as Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.60 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 43% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Nürnberg 30%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 55%, 1. FC Nürnberg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 1.07 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights