🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

1. FC Nürnberg host VfL Bochum at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

1. FC Nürnberg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Nürnberg haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Max-Morlock-Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, VfL Bochum have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. VfL Bochum haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Nürnberg at 1.60 PPG versus VfL Bochum's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 0 for VfL Bochum and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

VfL Bochum in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 62% and VfL Bochum 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 53% | VfL Bochum 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.67 xG and VfL Bochum 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.012 / defence 0.889 | VfL Bochum attack 0.957 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.746 / away 1.253. Data: 34 1. FC Nürnberg games / 34 VfL Bochum games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 51% | Draw 26% | VfL Bochum 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | VfL Bochum 4.17. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | VfL Bochum 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights