1. FC Nürnberg 8-3 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours 1. FC Nürnberg (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Nürnberg face SSV Jahn Regensburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg make the trip to Max-Morlock-Stadion to face 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 25 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 4W 0D 6L at Max-Morlock-Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1W 0D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Nürnberg. A 0.60 PPG lead over SSV Jahn Regensburg (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 2W, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 73% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 54% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 18%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Nürnberg 73% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 2.09 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.914 / defence 1.192 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.521 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.473. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.430 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 1. FC Nürnberg games / 9 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 63% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 14%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 7.14. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 63% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 2.09 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.914 / def 1.192 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.521 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (63%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
0.92
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Nürnberg 8 - 3 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 63% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 2W | Draws 2 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.52x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
63%
1.58
23%
4.41
14%
7.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.01
0.92
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
7.06
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
12%
8.09
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
57.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0.92 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 5W 1D 5L from 11 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 7L across 11 games — 0.73 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Nürnberg by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SSV Jahn Regensburg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.45 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 18%.
Last 11 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 1D 5L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.80 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 8-3 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 20% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 60% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 40% of games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 20% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 60% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Nürnberg run riot with a 8-3 hammering of SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 8-3 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 2.09 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.92 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 8-3 for 11 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 5.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Jahn Regensburg outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.91 / defence 1.19 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.52 / defence 1.43, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 63% | Draw 23% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 14%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 11, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 73%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 8 against a 2.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.