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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC encounter.

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Full Analysis

Max-Morlock-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Nürnberg versus Karlsruher SC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at Max-Morlock-Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Karlsruher SC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in 1. FC Nürnberg's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Karlsruher SC, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Karlsruher SC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Karlsruher SC have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Karlsruher SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 64% and Karlsruher SC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Nürnberg 66% | Karlsruher SC 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.74 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.042 / defence 0.969 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.937 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.352. Data: 55 1. FC Nürnberg games / 55 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 48% | Draw 26% | Karlsruher SC 26%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Karlsruher SC 3.85. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

Karlsruher SC lead the H2H ledger, but 1. FC Nürnberg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 70% | Karlsruher SC 40% BTTS from recent games.

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