1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees FC St. Pauli travel to Max-Morlock-Stadion to take on 1. FC Nürnberg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, 1. FC Nürnberg have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
FC St. Pauli have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against 1. FC Nürnberg's 1 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2026, ended 3–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC St. Pauli have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 64% and FC St. Pauli 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 57% | FC St. Pauli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.79 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.223 / defence 1.167 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.851 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. Data: 44 1. FC Nürnberg games / 10 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 52% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | FC St. Pauli 4.17. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
FC St. Pauli lead the H2H ledger, but 1. FC Nürnberg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | FC St. Pauli 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 52% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.79 / FC St. Pauli 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.223 / def 1.167 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.851 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FC St. Pauli xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 52% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
Record (7 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 5W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.17
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.95
1.16
FC St. Pauli xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
4%
24.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.16 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 18W 13D 13L from 44 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 22L across 44 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Nürnberg by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC St. Pauli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 12W 5D 5L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 2W 8D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.93 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 18W 13D 13L in their last 44 games (1.52 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 8W 14D 22L in their last 44 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.86 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
5
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
From 7 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, FC St. Pauli 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 41% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 27% of games; FC St. Pauli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 54% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 41% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.