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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out VfL Bochum 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat VfL Bochum 2-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.41 xG and VfL Bochum 0.87 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.81 / defence 0.90 against VfL Bochum attack 0.71 / defence 1.31, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 23%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 67%, VfL Bochum 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights