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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-3 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 xG and SV Elversberg 1.44 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SV Elversberg outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against SV Elversberg attack 0.98 / defence 0.66, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 45%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 65%, SV Elversberg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.31 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights