1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. 1. FC Nürnberg's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of SV Darmstadt 98's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to 1. FC Nürnberg's 2, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
It is worth noting that SV Darmstadt 98 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
1. FC Nürnberg half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 64% and SV Darmstadt 98 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 57% | SV Darmstadt 98 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 2.94 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.225 / defence 1.170 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.737 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 1. FC Nürnberg games / 44 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 76% | Draw 14% | SV Darmstadt 98 10%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.32 | Draw 7.14 | SV Darmstadt 98 10.00. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (76%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.94 / 1.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
SV Darmstadt 98 lead the H2H ledger, but 1. FC Nürnberg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.95 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 76% | Draw 14% | SV Darmstadt 98 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 60% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 2.94 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.225 / def 1.170 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.737 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
60%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 76% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 10% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (8 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 2W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 5W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 1.23x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 2.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.74x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.3%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
76%
1.31
14%
7.17
10%
10.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.95
1.01
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.31
76%
Home win
7.17
14%
Draw
10.36
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
5%
18.95
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
1%
196.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.01 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 18W 13D 13L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98's form line: 15W 16D 13L from 44 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.39 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 1.95 PPG from 21 outings (12W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — 1. FC Nürnberg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 8D 10L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.50 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 18W 13D 13L in their last 44 games (1.52 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 16D 13L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.95 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SV Darmstadt 98 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
5
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-0 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 52%, SV Darmstadt 98 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 67% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.