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Shock result as SV Darmstadt 98 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Darmstadt 98 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.73 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.38 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 46% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 31%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual SV Darmstadt 98 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 69%, SV Darmstadt 98 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights