🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out SV Darmstadt 98 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 2.11 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.69 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.16 / defence 1.25, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 47% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 30%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 64%, SV Darmstadt 98 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights