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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Nürnberg and Preußen Münster share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as 1. FC Nürnberg and Preußen Münster drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.69 xG and Preußen Münster 1.07 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Preußen Münster attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 51% | Draw 25% | Preußen Münster 23%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 66%, Preußen Münster 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 PPG, Preußen Münster 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights