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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant 1. FC Nürnberg run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Karlsruher SC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat Karlsruher SC 5-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.74 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.94 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 48% | Draw 26% | Karlsruher SC 26%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 66%, Karlsruher SC 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.35 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights