🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as 1. FC Nürnberg defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat Hannover 96 2-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 xG and Hannover 96 1.59 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Hannover 96 attack 1.25 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 29% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 47%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 66%, Hannover 96 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Hannover 96's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 PPG, Hannover 96 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights