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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hannover 96 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.29 xG and Hannover 96 0.98 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hannover 96 outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against Hannover 96 attack 0.85 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 42% | Draw 32% | Hannover 96 26%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Hannover 96 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 61%, Hannover 96 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Hannover 96's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.32 PPG, Hannover 96 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights