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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant 1. FC Nürnberg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Schalke 04.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat FC Schalke 04 3-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.19 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.94 / defence 0.87 against FC Schalke 04 attack 1.06 / defence 0.79, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 34% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 34%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 61%, FC Schalke 04 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.36 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights