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Shock result as 1. FC Nürnberg defy the odds to beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.25 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.26 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 36% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 37%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 66%, Eintracht Braunschweig 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.30 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights