1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg host Eintracht Braunschweig at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Nürnberg at 1.20 PPG versus Eintracht Braunschweig's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, Eintracht Braunschweig 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 60% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 64% | Eintracht Braunschweig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 2.81 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.230 / defence 1.134 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.681 / defence 1.490. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.544. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.490 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 1. FC Nürnberg games / 50 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 70% | Draw 18% | Eintracht Braunschweig 12%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Eintracht Braunschweig 8.33. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.81 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Eintracht Braunschweig 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 70% | Draw 18% | Eintracht Braunschweig 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 67% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 2.81 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.230 / def 1.134 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.681 / def 1.490 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.544 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
67%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 70% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 2W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 1.23x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 2.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.53
12%
8.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
4.00
1.19
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
8.18
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
6%
16.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
1%
135.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.19 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 11D 23L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 1.02 PPG from 50 outings (14W 9D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.18 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 9W 6D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.62 points per game from 24 outings (4W 3D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.06 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 16W 11D 23L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 14W 9D 27L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.38 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, Eintracht Braunschweig 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 67% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 38% of games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 46% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 67% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 2.81 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.19 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.23 / defence 1.13 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.68 / defence 1.49, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 70% | Draw 18% | Eintracht Braunschweig 12%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 64%, Eintracht Braunschweig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.