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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Köln beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.39 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.15 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.08 / defence 1.21 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.71 / defence 0.90, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 41% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 30%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 65%, 1. FC Köln 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.29 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights